Now we live in a world of uncertainty where the economic facts can change at a moment’s notice. That world would be best served by a Fed that is prepared to make early monetary policy changes when the ...
As Operation Epic Fury finishes its sixth week and enters a two-week cease fire period, we estimate an incremental cost to date of between $25 and $35 billion.
We say that civic life is fraying. We point to distrust, fragmentation, and the steady decline of shared experience in American culture. Much of that is true. But every so often, something cuts ...
Why do economists generally seem more cautious than many folks in Silicon Valley about the potential economic impacts of artificial intelligence, especially when forecasting extreme scenarios? One big ...
We must hope that Trump secures an early opening of the Hormuz Strait that would allow the restoration of normal energy, fertilizer, aluminum, and helium supply flow from the Gulf. If that doesn't ...
If AI truly is a powerful general-purpose technology, it will eventually reshape work in profound ways as it boosts worker productivity and wages. History suggests the changes will be mostly ...
No president, regardless of party, should ever face the prospect of curtailing combat operations because the United States is running out of bullets.
Yesterday the Senate passed the 21st Century ROAD Act by a vote of 89–10. Among its many provisions is one especially harmful measure to low-income families. Nearly 50% of full-time low-income workers ...
The China economy field is full of people repeating the government’s numbers and “analyzing” them. If that’s sufficient, China watchers can just project a gradual fall from 5 percent GDP growth ...
About fifteen years ago, I participated in some war games about the possibility of an attack on Iran, not unlike what now unfolds. I was on the Iran team. Our goal was to stymie the U.S. and Israeli ...
Competition involving the Gulf states and Turkey in the Horn of Africa is exacerbating preexisting African conflicts and risking a regional proxy war on both sides of the Red Sea. A new era of ...
The new Trump administration US defense strategy is based on this analysis of the world: After the end of the Cold War, American foreign policy elites convinced themselves that permanent American ...
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